In the very beginning of 2006, Russia will suffer a severe drop in GDP growth rate. This effect is related to the sharp decrease of the number of 18-year-olds in Russia (see Kitov, I. ( 2005), GDP growth rate and population). This decrease makes about 50% in the next few years. The above figure illustrates the observed and predicted real GDP growth rate. Annual real GDP measurements are shown by large dark blue solid circles. Open squares present the annual predicted values. Moscow Narodny Bank in London gives monthly estimates of so called GDP Indicator shown by small dark blue solid circles. Open blue circles present predicted monthly values based on the annual GDP predictions and short oscillations observed every two years in the GDP Indicator time series.

Сайт создан в системе uCoz